World Bank Forecasts 23% Commodity Price Rise in 2026 as Energy Costs Surge
The bank's October outlook projects a 32% increase in energy prices this year and further food-price pressure in 2027, while warning that new supply shocks could worsen the outlook.
The World Bank projected on October 28 that global commodity prices will rise 23% in 2026, reversing an earlier period of declining energy costs as disruptions to oil supplies, grain shipments and agricultural production affect international markets.
The forecast appears in the bank's October 2026 Commodity Markets Outlook. It projects energy prices to increase 32% this year, with benchmark Brent crude averaging $91 per barrel, compared with $69 in 2025. The institution expects Brent to average $79 in 2027 if its baseline assumptions hold.
Food commodity prices are forecast to increase approximately 10% in 2026 and another 7% in 2027. The combined increase would be about 18% over two years. The bank cited disruptions to Black Sea grain shipments, higher fuel and fertilizer costs and potential effects of El Niño on harvests. These figures are projections for commodity markets, not measurements of retail food inflation in every country.
The outlook estimates that global oil supply will contract 5.2% in 2026 and oil consumption 2.5%. The bank said depleted inventories could make prices more sensitive to renewed disruptions. Its baseline anticipates overall commodity prices easing by 7% in 2027, although that depends on conflicts affecting supply not intensifying significantly.
An adverse scenario involving further energy and grain disruptions alongside severe weather could push Brent crude to an average of $105 a barrel in 2027 and food commodity prices 12% above the baseline forecast. Those are conditional estimates rather than events the bank says will necessarily occur.
The institution also said it has made between $50 billion and $60 billion available through existing instruments to help countries respond to higher prices, including $25 billion in pre-arranged financing. The latest outlook highlights the pressure that commodity shocks can place on household budgets, agricultural costs and public finances, particularly in countries with limited fiscal capacity.
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