Analysis

San Marino Drops €50 Million Bond Plan as Deficit Forecast Falls

Lawmakers backed a 2026 budget revision cutting the projected deficit to about €5.7 million and shelving a planned bond swap; a €2 million arbitration reserve has not been spent.

Updated: 3 min read

San Marino's Grand and General Council approved a revision to the country's 2026 budget on 27 October that lowered the projected annual deficit to approximately €5.7 million from €13.7 million in the original forecast and removed a proposed €50 million additional bond issuance, according to an Askanews account of the parliamentary debate. The figure is a forecast for the financial year, not a final audited result.

The official council website records that the Finance and Budget Secretariat presented the 2026 budget variation bill on 3 July and that its first reading took place on 20 July. The website's public bill record still displays an earlier procedural status awaiting second reading, which has not been updated to reflect the reported 27 October vote. The account of passage comes from parliamentary reporting, not from a newly published authenticated law.

The initial deficit projection, made in December 2025, had already been lowered to about €7.8 million in July. The October revision brought it down further, according to an Askanews account of the council proceedings published by GiornaleSM. The projected reduction from the original forecast is about €8 million, or 58%, calculated from the rounded figures cited in that account.

The government removed an authorization for another €50 million of bond issuance that had been intended to replace part of the irredeemable securities held by the state-owned Cassa di Risparmio. Finance Secretary Marco Gatti said market conditions would not allow the exchange to be completed on acceptable terms at present. He described the replacement of the old securities as a continuing objective rather than a permanently cancelled policy.

The Askanews account reports that lawmakers approved the amendment deleting the additional issuance provision and then passed the overall budget adjustment by a majority. The final signed version of the amended law and its annexed budget tables were not available from the official council bill record reviewed for this report.

Higher revenue, disputed spending

Supporters pointed to roughly €26 million in additional tax and non-tax revenue and lower debt-servicing costs. The government separately projected about €8 million more income-tax revenue than originally expected, while officials cited approximately €6.5 million less in interest expenditure than forecast at the start of the year. These are budget comparisons and projections, not proof that the government has collected every expected euro.

Opposition lawmakers challenged whether improved revenue was being matched by spending discipline. Emanuele Santi of Rete pointed to current spending rising from roughly €670 million to €691 million compared with the July forecast. Gatti replied that approximately €19.5 million of the increase reflected higher refunds of import taxes linked to economic activity and exports, with other increases connected to pay adjustments. Those different explanations concern the composition of spending, not an independently established misuse of funds.

The debate also addressed €2 million budgeted for an international arbitration linked to Banca di San Marino. Gatti said that amount was a precautionary allocation and had not been spent. It would be inaccurate to describe it as €2 million already paid in arbitration costs.

Opposition representatives also pressed for clearer long-term investment priorities, measures to address living costs and more transparent debt management. Government supporters defended the revised fiscal trajectory but did not claim that San Marino's structural spending pressures had disappeared.

What remains to verify

The updated figures are rounded figures reported from the parliamentary debate. Gatti had cited a €5.6 million projected deficit when presenting amendments before the final vote, whereas the subsequent Askanews account of the approved revision reported €5.7 million. The precise difference needs reconciliation against the promulgated law and its final annexed budget tables. Neither number should be treated as the year-end deficit.

The next accountability checks are the final gazetted amendment, the detailed borrowing and spending schedules, the eventual 2026 accounts and whether the postponed bond exchange reappears in the 2027 budget. No evidence reviewed for this report establishes corruption, unlawful spending or a final realized budget surplus.

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