Reuters Poll Forecasts 93.2% Rise in South Korea's October Exports
Economists expect unusually rapid export growth on strong AI-chip demand, but calendar effects mean the forecast should not be read as an equivalent jump in underlying activity.
South Korea's merchandise exports are expected to rise 93.2% from a year earlier in October 2026, according to the median forecast in a Reuters survey of nine economists released on 29 October. The forecast points to exceptionally strong demand for semiconductors linked to artificial-intelligence infrastructure, although official full-month figures have not yet been published.
If the estimate is realised, it would be the fastest annual increase since January 1974 and mark a 17th consecutive month of export growth. The survey forecast compares with an 83.7% rise in September cited by Reuters. These are estimates of growth in the value of shipments, not proof that the same percentage increase occurred in physical quantities or domestic production.
The calendar complicates the comparison. October 2026 had 22 working days against 20 in the same month last year, reflecting different timing of the Chuseok holiday. Economists surveyed by Reuters said that additional trading days and a favourable year-earlier comparison help explain the unusually high headline rate. Strong memory-chip prices and demand for computing equipment were also cited as contributors.
Early official figures provide a separate, partial check on the direction of trade. The Korea Customs Service reported exports of $61.612 billion during October 1–20, up 105.4% from the corresponding period of 2025. Adjusted for the number of working days, the customs agency said average daily exports increased 65.9%. The preliminary 20-day total cannot be treated as the final result for October.
South Korea had already reported record monthly exports in September, with semiconductor shipments accounting for a large share of the total, according to Yonhap's account of the trade ministry's data. The latest forecasts therefore extend an established pattern rather than indicating that the semiconductor expansion began this week.
The Reuters survey also projected a 39.9% annual increase in imports and a trade surplus of $37.24 billion. Those estimates may change once customs data for the full month are available. South Korea is scheduled to publish the official October trade report on November 1 at 09:00 local time, or 00:00 UTC. Until then, the 93.2% figure remains a forecast, not a confirmed export outcome.
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