Germany's Adjusted Unemployment Rises by 4,000 in October Despite Seasonal Decline

Germany's labour market remained weak in October even though the headline number of unemployed people fell during the usual autumn hiring season. Figures released by the Federal Employment Agency on Friday, October 30, showed a seasonally adjusted increase of 4,000 unemployed people to 3.016 million.

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate held at 6.4%. Economists polled by Reuters had expected an increase of 5,000 people, so the actual rise was marginally smaller than forecast. Seasonal adjustment attempts to remove recurring calendar patterns, allowing a clearer view of underlying labour-market conditions.

Without seasonal adjustment, the number of unemployed people declined by approximately 40,000 from September to 2.955 million. That was the second consecutive month with an unadjusted total below three million. The difference between the two series is important: a fall in the unadjusted count does not by itself establish that underlying hiring conditions improved.

The agency recorded 654,000 job vacancies in October, 31,000 more than a year earlier. Agency chief Andrea Nahles described the autumn labour-market recovery as subdued and said economic conditions remained insufficient to support a clear improvement.

The report presents a mixed picture for Europe's largest economy. The seasonal decline offered some near-term relief, but the adjusted increase indicates that the labour market has yet to register a sustained recovery. Future releases will show whether stronger output and demand eventually translate into more hiring.