ECB Survey Lifts 2026 and 2027 Eurozone Inflation Forecasts

Professional forecasters surveyed by the European Central Bank have raised their expectations for euro-area inflation in 2026 and 2027, according to results published on Friday, October 30. The survey's median projections now put headline consumer-price inflation at 3.0% in 2026 and 2.6% in 2027, compared with previous expectations of 2.7% and 2.2% respectively.

The fourth-quarter Survey of Professional Forecasters attributes most of the increases to higher and more persistent energy prices, including their indirect effects on other goods and services. The 2028 headline inflation forecast remained at 2.0%, as did the longer-term expectation for 2031.

Core inflation, which excludes energy and food, was expected to average 2.4% in 2026, unchanged from the previous survey. Its forecast for 2027 rose to 2.5% and the estimate for 2028 increased to 2.2%. This distinction matters because changes in headline inflation can reflect energy prices even when broader underlying price pressure changes less sharply.

Respondents projected euro-area economic growth of 1.0% in 2026 and 1.3% in both 2027 and 2028. Their wage-growth forecasts were 3.3% for 2026, 3.1% for 2027 and 2.8% for 2028, suggesting that they do not currently anticipate a sustained cycle in which higher prices and wages continually reinforce one another.

The survey gathered 52 responses between October 2 and October 7. It reports the expectations of outside specialists rather than a new interest-rate decision or a binding forecast issued by the ECB's governing council.

The figures describe a changing outlook, not inflation already realised in future years. Energy-market conditions, economic activity and policy decisions could still move actual prices away from the survey projections.

Sources

•European Central Bank, fourth-quarter 2026 Survey of Professional Forecasters.

•BigGo Finance reporting on the October 30 survey release.

Sources

•Supporting source 1

•Supporting source 2