China Passenger Car Sales Forecast to Rebound 2% in 2027 After Sharp 2026 Drop

China's domestic passenger car market could recover modestly in 2027 after a much weaker-than-expected 2026, according to a new forecast from a senior industry analyst released on Monday, October 26.

Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the China Passenger Car Association, projected domestic retail sales of approximately 18.5 million passenger vehicles in 2026, compared with about 23.7 million in 2025. He expects growth to return in 2027, with a central estimate of 2% and a possible range of 0% to 5%, provided policy and market conditions do not change unexpectedly.

Chinese financial outlet Yicai reported the forecast on Monday, citing Cui's published analysis. Reuters separately reported the same central growth projection and sales comparison. Both reports describe a tentative recovery rather than a return to the market's previous sales peak.

Cui linked the projected improvement to the possible easing of short-term pressures on buyers and manufacturers, lower costs and more competitive new vehicle offerings. Those factors could encourage some delayed purchases to resume, but competition among manufacturers is expected to become increasingly uneven.

The forecast is an industry assessment, not an official sales target or a guarantee of demand. Actual 2027 sales will depend on consumer spending, pricing, government policy and the wider economic environment. For manufacturers, the figures point to a difficult domestic market in the near term despite continued interest in new-energy vehicles and exports.