China Clean-Tech Exports Could Avoid 450 Million Tonnes of CO2 Abroad in 2026, Analysis Finds

Chinese exports of solar panels, wind turbines, batteries and electric vehicles are projected to help avoid around 450 million tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions outside China in 2026, according to an analysis reported on Thursday, October 29. The figure describes estimated emissions that would otherwise have occurred, not a directly measured fall in the world's total emissions.

Reuters reported the estimate from the Finland-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), ahead of the COP31 climate summit. The projected annual benefit is roughly equivalent to 2% of annual carbon dioxide emissions outside China, according to the analysis. Researchers estimate that the corresponding benefit from China's 2025 exports was around 370 million tonnes, suggesting that the contribution from newly exported clean-energy equipment has continued to expand.

The analysis considers equipment deployed abroad rather than China's domestic renewable-energy installations. Solar panels can displace electricity generated from coal and gas; electric vehicles can reduce the use of petrol and diesel; and batteries can help electricity systems integrate more renewable generation. The actual climate benefit depends on how equipment is used, how long it operates and what fossil-fuel generation or transport activity it replaces.

CREA's earlier published methodology illustrates why these figures require careful interpretation. A July 2025 assessment of products exported in 2024 estimated that those shipments could avoid around 220 million tonnes of CO2 each year after deployment. It compared the equipment's manufacturing emissions with the savings expected during use and accounted for the carbon intensity of power systems in destination countries. The older estimate is a historical comparison, not independent confirmation of the new 2026 projection.

The latest analysis, as described by Reuters, estimates that the equipment exported in 2026 could avoid a cumulative 8.4 billion tonnes of CO2 over its operating lifetime. This is a long-range projection involving assumptions about equipment lifespan, performance and the energy mix it replaces; it must not be confused with annual emissions savings.

Researchers say a substantial share of the avoided emissions comes from countries in the Global South, where imported clean-energy technologies can displace relatively carbon-intensive power. Solar equipment is identified as the largest contributor to the projected savings.

China remains the world's largest annual carbon dioxide emitter, while also being a major producer of the equipment used by other countries to reduce emissions. The findings therefore concern the effect of its exported technology abroad, not a claim that China's own emissions have fallen by the same amount. Trade restrictions, falling equipment prices and competition among manufacturers can affect the pace of deployment, but the estimates do not establish the outcome of future trade policy.