Bank of Korea Models Up to $100 Billion Chip Export Shortfall if AI Spending Slows

South Korea's central bank has quantified how a slowdown in spending on artificial-intelligence infrastructure could affect the country's semiconductor-led economy, estimating a possible $50 billion to $100 billion shortfall in chip exports in 2027 compared with its earlier forecast.

The Bank of Korea outlined the downside case in written answers submitted to the National Assembly on October 26. It is a hypothetical stress scenario, not a prediction that chip exports will decline by that amount or that technology companies have already cancelled planned investments.

The central bank's baseline had envisaged roughly $600 billion in semiconductor exports in 2027. Under the pessimistic assumptions, export revenue would fall short of that expectation as growth in shipments slows and semiconductor unit prices run about 10% below the bank's earlier projection.

The resulting shock could reduce South Korea's economic growth rate next year by approximately 0.4 percentage point relative to the baseline. The bank also expects a significantly smaller current-account surplus than the $430 billion it had previously projected for 2027. The current account measures cross-border trade and income flows, so lower export receipts can affect it even if chip factories continue operating.

The exercise reflects South Korea's reliance on global demand for memory chips and other components used in AI data centres. Large US technology companies have expanded their capital budgets for computing infrastructure, supporting Korean semiconductor sales and prices.

That demand could remain strong, and the central bank has emphasised uncertainty about the future investment cycle. Its analysis instead illustrates how an unexpected cooling in AI spending or weaker chip prices could affect export earnings, growth and the Korean won.

The assessment was reported by South Korean business media before Reuters published further details on October 27. It follows the country's strong third-quarter economic performance, which has also been supported by semiconductor exports and investment.